Zillow Just Updated Its Forecast—Here’s What It Means for Our Neighborhoods

Hey everyone! If you’re keeping an eye on the housing market around here, you know it’s been a rollercoaster. Well, Zillow just dropped its latest forecast for home prices in September 2025, and I wanted to break down what it means for us, especially right here in Hillsborough and Pasco counties.

First, let's talk about Zillow's numbers. You've probably heard of the "Zestimate" for a single house. Honestly, it can be a bit of a hit-or-miss—we’re talking a median error rate of around 2% for homes on the market and up to 7% for those that aren't! But when we look at the bigger picture, like a whole county, their Zillow Home Value Index (or ZHVI) gives us a pretty solid snapshot of the market's direction.

So, let's dive in!

The Big Picture: What's Happening Across the U.S.?

Nationally, things are looking a bit more stable than we thought they would. Zillow is now forecasting a 1.2% increase in home prices from August 2025 to August 2026. That might not sound like much, but it's a big jump from last month's prediction of only 0.4% growth. And get this—back in April, they were bracing for a 1.7% drop. So, this is a welcome sigh of relief!

Right now, the typical home value across the country is sitting at $363,505. Homes are taking a bit longer to sell, about 24 days to go under contract, which tells us the market has cooled off and buyers have a little more breathing room. It seems sellers are pulling back a bit, which is giving the buyers who are still out there more leverage.

Zooming In: The Florida Story

Now, let's bring it closer to home. Florida has been on a different ride. After the craziness of the past few years, our state is seeing a more significant correction. The typical home value in Florida is now $378,031, which is actually down 5.1% over the last year. Ouch.

That dip is steeper than the rest of the country, partly because of things like sky-high insurance costs and a bit of an oversupply in markets that were recently red-hot. Homes here are taking around 56 days to sell, showing that demand has definitely slowed down. While Zillow’s national outlook is getting a little sunnier, Florida might still have a few clouds overhead.

Our Backyard: A Look at Hillsborough County

Right here in Hillsborough County, we're pretty much following the state's trend, but our dip isn't quite as sharp. The current typical home value is $378,542, which is down 4.8% over the past year. It's a clear sign that the market is cooling off after that period of rapid price growth. On average, homes are going under contract in about 39 days.

While Zillow didn't release a specific new forecast just for Hillsborough, the vibe is that we should expect the market to stay soft for a bit longer.

Just Next Door: What's Up in Pasco County?

Heading north into Pasco County, the price drop has been even more noticeable. The typical home value there has fallen to $333,686, a 5.9% decrease from last year. Areas like New Port Richey have felt the slowdown as inventory builds up and buyers are more hesitant.

Some spots have been hit even harder. For example, in the 34653 ZIP code, prices have tumbled by as much as 7.9% in one year. Like Hillsborough, there's no custom forecast for Pasco, but its steeper decline suggests it's still facing some headwinds.

So, What's the Takeaway for You?

Bottom line: Zillow’s latest update shows the national market might be finding its footing, but Florida, including our local counties, is still in a correction phase. If you're a buyer, this is great news! You have more options, more time, and more negotiating power than you've had in years.

Just remember, the Zillow Home Value Index is great for tracking trends, but a "Zestimate" on a specific house can't see that amazing kitchen you just renovated or the leaky roof next door. For advice tailored to your home and your situation, nothing beats talking to a local real estate professional.

Stay tuned, as these numbers can change quickly with shifts in the economy. It’s a dynamic market out there!